In less than a year, China will submit its 2035 climate goals to the United Nations and update its existing 2030 targets.
At present, China has committed to achieving carbon peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060. These updated United Nations climate targets, which are China's nationally determined contribution targets designated under the Paris Agreement, are crucial for determining the rate of carbon reduction after peaking, promoting energy transition, and demonstrating the credibility of carbon neutrality goals. As the world's largest emitter, China's climate goals are also crucial for global efforts to mitigate climate change.
China has currently pledged to allow it to reduce emissions at a very slow pace in the initial stage, but afterwards, China's development of clean energy has far exceeded the expected pace of the commitment, and there are early signs that China's emissions are beginning to stabilize or decline. Therefore, there is reason to reassess China's emission trajectory and give Chinese leaders confidence in setting strong 2035 targets.
We have evaluated emission trajectories that comply with the Paris Agreement. The results indicate that China should strive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 30% by 2035. After examining various emission reduction opportunities, we have discovered how to utilize existing trends and policies to achieve this goal.
Starting point: China's emission trends and commitments
Since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015, China's annual greenhouse gas emissions and carbon dioxide emissions have accounted for 30% and 90% of the global total, respectively. Its emissions growth will accelerate between 2021 and 2023. Therefore, China's peak and decline in carbon emissions play an indispensable role in aligning global emissions with the goals of the Paris Agreement.
China's commitment to achieving carbon neutrality before 2060 can be seen as consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement, but the prerequisite is to deeply reduce emissions within the next decade, which is also the key to the credibility of its long-term goals.
China also needs to clearly state in writing that its carbon neutrality target for 2060 includes all greenhouse gases. Although (former climate envoy Xie Zhenhua) has made a statement on this, it is not included in the goals of the Paris Agreement that have been submitted.
To align China's new national independent contribution targets with the Paris Agreement, a strong 2035 target must be established.
How much does China need to reduce emissions to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement?
Many research groups at home and abroad have proposed a path for China to achieve its commitments by 2030 and 2060. The specific emission reduction path depends on the global temperature control target to be achieved (whether it is 1.5 degrees Celsius or 2 degrees Celsius, and the probability of achieving this target), assumptions about carbon dioxide removal, responsibility sharing among countries, and data and assumptions about emission reduction costs in the model.
The recommended path for moderate emissions reduction in the next decade is based on the assumption of significant "overshoot" in greenhouse gas concentrations and relies on removing a large amount of carbon from the atmosphere to subsequently reduce concentrations. Due to the high risk, high cost, and potential impracticality of such paths, we have excluded them from the analysis.
After a comprehensive investigation of published research (as shown in the table below), it was found that in order to align with the 1.5 degree Celsius target, China's greenhouse gas emissions should be at least 30% above peak levels by 2035, while the most ambitious scenario requires a reduction of 80%. The latest assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) includes scenarios that require even higher emission reductions, with a median of over 60%.
Proposed Path for China to Achieve Carbon Neutrality and Different Emission Reduction Timelines
A difficult but feasible task
As China's emissions continue to rise (at least until 2023), the idea of achieving significant absolute emissions reductions in the next decade seems to be a daunting task for Chinese policy makers. However, based on existing trends, policies, and targets, there is still a chance to reduce emissions by 30% by 2035. If it is refined to various departments, this task will not be so difficult.
In addition, reducing emissions by 30% also means that by 2060, a straight path will be followed from reaching peak emissions to achieving carbon neutrality, making it a consistent and credible approach to achieving long-term goals. In the next decade, a lower emission reduction rate means that a faster emission reduction rate is needed in the following decades.
Steel: the industry with the greatest potential for emission reduction
The scale of China's steel industry ranks first in the world, accounting for 54% of the total global production. There are two types of steel refining processes, namely the coal-fired blast furnace process using iron ore as raw material and the electric furnace process using scrap steel as raw material. The vast majority of steel in China adopts the former process, making the steel sector the second largest emission industry in China after the power sector.
As long as China's steel demand grows rapidly, the proportion of recycled scrap steel supply in demand will be very small. As China's steel demand reaches its peak and the supply of scrap steel increases, the possibility of breaking away from coal based production methods becomes greater. This is an important opportunity for emission reduction in the next decade.
The 'long process' and' short process' of steel manufacturing
The goal set by China in 2022 is to increase the proportion of scrap steel raw materials to 30% and the proportion of electric furnace steel to 15% by 2025. The China Iron and Steel Industry Association predicts that the proportion of electric furnace steel may reach over 30% by 2035.
At the same time, researchers from Huaxia Dual Carbon Energy Research Institute and Tsinghua University predict that under the carbon neutrality pathway, steel production will decrease by 10% to 20% by 2025. In addition, with the increasing share of electric furnace steel, the carbon dioxide emissions of the steel industry can be reduced by 40% by 2035.
To seize this opportunity, China can also set a goal of the proportion of clean steel production without coal in the total steel production.
Electricity: the main force of energy transformation
The power sector is not only the sector with the largest greenhouse gas emissions, but also the sector that needs to be expanded to replace the position of coal in oil, industry and construction in transportation, so as to achieve emission reduction in these sectors.
In 2023, China's solar and wind energy industries will experience unprecedented growth, leading its power sector onto a path of carbon peak and beginning to reduce emissions. If China can maintain the incremental level of renewable energy in 2023, its installed capacity of renewable energy is expected to triple between 2022 and 2030, in line with the global ambition reached at COP28 held in Dubai last year.
The clean energy industry is also predicting its growth to triple.
The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that in their conservative scenario, the average annual new installed capacity from 2024 to 2030 will reach 225 gigawatts, slightly higher than the 217 gigawatts in 2023. In their optimistic scenario, this number will reach 280 gigawatts per year.
The wind power department stated that from 2021 to 2025, China's newly installed wind power capacity needs to reach over 50 gigawatts per year, and from 2026 onwards, it needs to reach over 60 gigawatts per year in order to achieve carbon neutrality goals. Considering that the newly installed wind power capacity has reached 76 gigawatts by 2023, this target is still quite moderate.
According to the predictions of the Chinese Society of Hydroelectric Engineering for 2030 and 2060, China may add an additional 60 gigawatts of conventional hydropower by 2035.
Based on these predictions, by 2030, China's installed capacity of renewable energy will increase from 1130 gigawatts in 2022 to 3400 to 3800 gigawatts, a growth of more than three times. In this way, by 2035, coal power generation will decrease by more than 20%, and the total coal consumption, including other industries, will decrease by 35%.
In addition to incorporating this prospect into the overall emission reduction target, China should also include new renewable energy or non fossil fuel energy targets in its new nationally determined contribution targets. This will provide certainty for the industry and strongly supplement absolute emission reduction targets.
Considering the significant share of renewable energy and electric vehicle technology in exports, as well as their importance to economic growth, it is in China's interest to establish strong national targets for renewable energy installation and electric vehicle development.
Opportunities in other departments
In addition to steel, there are also significant emission reduction opportunities in other major energy consuming industrial sectors in China.
Cement production is the third largest industry in China in terms of emissions, after electricity and steel. Since 2020, the production and emissions of the cement sector have both declined. The China Building Materials Federation predicts that cement demand will further decrease by more than 10% by 2030. If this trend continues, cement production and corresponding emissions will decrease by 20% from 2025 to 2035, a decrease of nearly 30% compared to 2020. This trend is in line with the Chinese leadership's ambition to avoid using low value added infrastructure and real estate projects as economic drivers.
One way to seize the emission reduction opportunities of other industrial sectors is to expand the coverage of China's carbon dioxide emissions trading system, including all high emission industries. Making such a commitment is in line with the goal set in the "Opinions on Comprehensively Promoting the Construction of a Beautiful China" issued by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council in December 2023: "By 2035, the proportion of non fossil energy in total energy consumption will further increase, and a more effective, dynamic, and internationally influential carbon market will be built
There are two ways in which coal causes global warming, one is due to the carbon dioxide produced by combustion, and the other is due to methane emissions during mining. The methane emissions caused by coal mining account for 5% of China's total greenhouse gas emissions.
Once China's coal consumption and production begin to decline, it will bring significant opportunities to reduce methane emissions from coal mines. The decrease in coal production will lead to the closure of coal mines to avoid overcapacity. Considering the significant differences in methane emissions among different coal mines, closing the coal mine with the highest methane emissions per unit of coal production can greatly affect such emissions. Due to this dynamic, under the carbon neutrality pathway, methane emissions from coal mines can be reduced by 40% by 2035.
Hydrofluorocarbons are very powerful greenhouse gases, mainly used in air conditioning and refrigerators. The emissions of hydrofluorocarbons from industrial processes and leaks from electrical appliances account for 1% of China's total greenhouse gas emissions. China recently accepted the Kigali Amendment, committing to gradually phase out hydrofluorocarbons by 2045. This existing commitment can serve as the basis for the emission targets of hydrofluorocarbons or all fluoride gases. The goal of gradually phasing out hydrofluorocarbons by 2045 through a linear path means that hydrofluorocarbon emissions will be reduced by 50% by 2035.
Most predictions indicate that there is still a significant potential for emissions growth in the transportation sector. By 2035, if the carbon emissions of the transportation industry can be maintained at the level of 2020, it will be considered successful. This is a necessary measure to ensure that the emissions growth of this department does not offset the emissions reductions of other departments.
A recent goal set by the "Beautiful China" policy is to increase the proportion of new energy vehicles in the newly added car market from 30% in 2023 to 45% by 2027. If this trend can continue, it is also possible to reach around 60% by 2035. This means that the ownership rate of new energy vehicles will reach 30%, significantly reducing oil consumption in the transportation sector. The long-term goal for new energy vehicles will also lay a strong foundation for the development of this sector, which will help alleviate concerns among Chinese trading partners about its outward dumping due to oversupply. This will clearly indicate that the expansion of the new energy vehicle manufacturing industry is supported by strong domestic demand.
Another goal of the "Beautiful China" policy is to achieve a 25% share of railway freight turnover (rather than land or air) in total turnover by 2035. This goal can provide reference for China's new national independent contribution target.
Realizing carbon neutrality requires both deep emissions reduction and maintaining or increasing the amount of carbon absorbed by ecosystems from the atmosphere. China has already proposed the goal of expanding forest coverage in its current national independent contribution targets. Renmin University of China has modeled the potential of increasing China's forest carbon sink under different carbon pricing scenarios, and found that the carbon storage capacity of China's terrestrial ecosystem may increase by 15% by 2035.
Overall
The deployment of clean energy in China will accelerate significantly in 2023. This makes it possible for China to set more ambitious goals than expected, whether it be the carbon peak timeline or the achievable emission reductions by 2035. If the deployment speed of clean energy from 2023 can be maintained until 2035, carbon dioxide emissions during this period will decrease by at least 35%, a decrease of 30% compared to 2020.
According to our assessment, non carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emissions are likely to decrease by 20% from 2020 levels by 2035, with coal mine methane and fluoride gases experiencing the largest reduction in emissions.
According to this assessment, a reduction of at least 30% in carbon dioxide emissions and a reduction of 30% in total greenhouse gas emissions (excluding carbon sinks) from 2025 to 2035 is in line with China's 2060 carbon neutrality goal and can be achieved by strengthening existing policies and measures.
By 2035, China's carbon sequestration capacity may increase by 15%. This enables China to commit to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% from the 2025 level.
How does the 30% target align with China's strategic goals?
2035 is a significant milestone for China. China's goal is to basically achieve socialist modernization within this year, with per capita gross domestic product income reaching the level of moderately developed countries, including the basic achievement of the "Beautiful China Goal", which involves establishing green consumption and production models, fundamentally improving environmental quality, and orderly reducing carbon dioxide emissions after reaching carbon peak.
To achieve significant emissions reductions before 2035, China needs to maintain and accelerate the development of clean energy. These industries have become the main driving force of China's economy and can make important contributions to realizing the economic ambitions of the leadership.
In 2023 alone, Chinese companies and governments have invested hundreds of billions of dollars in the clean technology industry. To ensure the success of these investments and maintain China's technological leadership in this field, it is necessary to accelerate energy transformation and target upgrading. If the target is lowered compared to 2023, it may indicate a slowdown in the deployment of clean energy technologies, which will weaken China's heavy investment in this field.
The prosperous development of the clean technology sector can promote high-quality economic growth: developing new clean industries, reducing dependence on high energy consuming, high emission, and low-quality industries, thereby supporting the achievement of the economic modernization goal by 2035.
Most parts of China are still plagued by air pollution, with fossil fuel combustion being the main culprit. Therefore, the reduction in fossil fuel consumption brought about by emissions reduction will make significant contributions to improving air quality and ecological protection, and contribute to the achievement of the "Beautiful China" goal by 2035.
One of the main concerns of Chinese policy makers is how to manage the process of gradually phasing out coal in order to achieve these emission reduction targets. However, if coal use is significantly reduced after 2035, the process of phasing out coal in order to achieve carbon neutrality will become more urgent and management challenges will be greater. Starting to phase out coal earlier can make the process smoother.
Early phasing out of coal will also enhance the credibility of China's carbon reduction commitments. If we are not prepared to gradually phase out coal now, how can we accelerate the phasing out of coal in ten years? This is difficult to understand. The new reality provides favorable conditions for China to reassess its emission reduction path, making it possible to avoid a steeper path after 2035.
Starting to reduce emissions according to carbon neutrality targets will help achieve General Secretary Xi Jinping's vision of making China an "important contributor" to addressing climate change.
Both times successfully achieved a balance between ambition and feasibility, not only helping to promote the formulation of domestic policies in China and the advancement of the international community, but also paving the way for the achievement of the Paris Agreement and the Glasgow Climate Convention, respectively.
If the Chinese leadership hopes to shine again and play a constructive role in the upcoming climate negotiations, it should be committed to emissions reductions consistent with the goals of the Paris Agreement. This requires China to immediately achieve carbon peak and continue to reduce emissions before 2035. This approach not only makes China's goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 feasible and credible, but also enables its world leading clean technology industry to flourish and continue to promote the country's economic development.
Thank you to Zhang Shuwei for contributing research content to this article.
Author: Liu Li, Senior Researcher at the China Climate Hub of the Asia Society Policy Institute. He is also the Chief Analyst of the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
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